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89

Tainter JA. The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge Univ Pr; 1990.

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Book

Systems

Complexity

Collapse

It may be difficult to persuade clinicians and health service managers, or anyone else for that matter, that reading a book by an archaeologist about the causes of collapse of ancient civilizations is worth their while but a good case can be made. This is because of the ever increasing resource costs of increasing complexity as a problem solving mechanism eventually reaches the point of diminishing returns on investments whether in whole civilizations or social enterprises such as healthcare. The graph the author shows (fig 11 p103) of the sharply declining productivity of healthcare in the last century is striking.